Burn-P3
Introduction
Burn-P3 is a simulation model used to evaluate wildfire susceptibility over large fire-prone landscapes. A landscape-level Monte Carlo approach combines deterministic fire growth modeling with probabilistic model inputs. The PrometheusCOM is used to model fire growth, while fire ignitions, spread events, and fire weather conditions are modeled from historical fire and weather data. The resulting approach, called BURN-P3 (probability, prediction, and planning), allows users to map wildfire susceptibility, expressed as burn probability (BP), for a given year. Burn-P3 is available as a Windows-based software application. This page briefly describes Burn-P3 and provides links to download the model and supporting documentation. Parisien et al. (2005) describe the Burn-P3 model in detail.
How it Works
Every fire in a Burn-P3 simulation is modeled deterministically, i.e.) one set of inputs always produce the same output. Prometheus models fire spread and the final perimeter of each fire based on the fuel type-specific spread rate equations found in the Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction System (Forestry Canada Fire Danger Group 1992). In contrast, Burn-P3 components are modeled probabilistically, i.e.) inputs are drawn from a probability distribution according to user-specified fire regime parameters. Burn-P3 components include the number of fires per iteration, location of ignitions, weather conditions under which the fires burn, and the number of days on which each fire achieves significant spread.
Monte Carlo simulations are modeled iteratively (one at a time) over a single annual time step (fire season). Burned areas for each iteration are recorded in a grid. This process is repeated for a large number (500 to 1000) of iterations. The burn grids from every iteration are then compiled into a cumulative grid of burn frequency (Figure 1). The following equation is used to calculate BP for each grid cell on the landscape, where BP is expressed as a percentage representing the likelihood of burning in a single fire season:
BP = (Number of Times Burned) / (Number of Iterations) * 100%
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| Figure 1. Burn probability map of Prince Albert National Park and surrounding area (central Saskatchewan). The map is based on 1080 simulated fires. |
Development History
The initial version of Burn-P3 used the Wildfire model to simulate fire spread. Wildfire is an 8-point cellular-based fire propagation model. Wildfire was replaced by the Prometheus fire growth simulation model, which is based on wave propagation principles, providing a more realistic representation of fire size and shape. This enhances the accuracy of burn probability estimates. To run Burn-P3, the PrometheusCOM must be installed. The PrometheusCOM is provided free-of-charge to collaborating agencies, researchers and academia.
Given the potential utility to Canadian land managers and fire scientists, a Windows-based Graphical User Interface (GUI) was developed to provide a user-friendly environment for running Burn-P3 (Figure 2). The GUI encompasses all of the documented Burn-P3 functionality, but also allows the user to generate "on-the-fly" or exploratory burn probability maps that require minimal data by using simplifying assumptions. For example, the user can use random ignition locations instead of importing spatial ignition grids.
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| Figure 2. Adding an ignition rule using the Burn-P3 Graphical User Interface (GUI). The main application window can be seen in the background. All parameters and functions can be accessed through the menu on the left. A fuel grid is displayed in the map view on the right. |
Downloads
Software
Burn-P3 installation files, user manual, and test files are hosted on the following Canadian Forest Service FTP site:
Documentation
- Information Report NOR-X-405 (2005) [PDF - 1.93 MB]
Acknowledgements
Burn-P3 was created by the Canadian Forest Service (CFS) as part of a multi-agency partnership with Parks Canada, Alberta Sustainable Resource Development, and Saskatchewan Environment. The first version of BURN-P3 was developed by the CFS and Parks Canada with the financial support of Saskatchewan Environment. A user-firendly, windows-based application of BURN-P3 (version 1.0) was then developed by the CFS, Alberta Sustainable Resource Development and Parks Canada with funding provided by the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (CIFFC) and the CFS. Additional funding was provided by Alberta Sustainable Resource Development and Saskatchewan Environment to complete user enhancements and increase functionality (version 2.0).
Contact
Although the Burn-P3 GUI is fully functional and available, it remains a work in progress. Please send any comments and bug reports to the contact below. This feedback will provide the opportunity to assess user needs and preferences and guide future development.
Marc-André Parisien
Spatial Data Analyst
Northern Forestry Centre
5320 122 Street Northwest
Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
T6H 3S5
Phone: 780-435-7303
Email: Marc-Andre.Parisien@NRCan-RNCan.gc.ca